Estadio Leoncio Benitez · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Boca Unidos vs Defensores de Vilelas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Boca Unidos and 1.00 for Defensores de Vilelas, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Boca Unidos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Unidos win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Unidos home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensores de Vilelas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Unidos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for Boca Unidos and 1.00 for Defensores de Vilelas, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–07.8%
Recent form
Boca Unidos
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
Defensores de Vilelas
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Chivilcoy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Unidos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Escobar · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · Boca Unidos 3-3 Defensores de Vilelas (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-06-06T18:30:00.000Z · Boca Unidos 0-2 Defensores de Vilelas (Torneo Federal A)
- 2026-04-04T20:00:00.000Z · Boca Unidos 2-4 Defensores de Vilelas (Torneo Federal A)
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Unidos win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.