Estadio Leoncio Benitez · Analysis updated 10:16 UTC
Boca Unidos vs Sarmiento Resistencia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Boca Unidos and 1.13 for Sarmiento Resistencia, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Boca Unidos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boca Unidos win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boca Unidos home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sarmiento Resistencia away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boca Unidos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Boca Unidos and 1.13 for Sarmiento Resistencia, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Boca Unidos
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bartolomé Mitre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Defensores de Vilelas · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs El Linqueño · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia Concepción · 1-0 (W)
Sarmiento Resistencia
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimnasia Concepción · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tucuman Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Las Parejas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boca Unidos · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente De Chivilcoy · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boca Unidos win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.