· Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Bochum II vs Rot-weiss Oberhausen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Bochum II and 2.40 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Rot-weiss Oberhausen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Rot-weiss Oberhausen win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bochum II home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Rot-weiss Oberhausen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 17% / 18% / 64% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Bochum II and 2.40 for Rot-weiss Oberhausen, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
36%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.6%
- 0–16.7%
Recent form
Bochum II
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 6-5 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hilden · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 0-1 (L)
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Rodinghausen · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Schalke 04 II · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T12:00:00.000Z · Bochum II 1-2 Rot-weiss Oberhausen (Regionalliga - West)
- 2026-05-02T12:00:00.000Z · Bochum II 2-5 Rot-weiss Oberhausen (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-11-09T13:00:00.000Z · Bochum II 0-1 Rot-weiss Oberhausen (Regionalliga - West)
- 2025-01-15T13:00:00.000Z · Bochum II 1-0 Rot-weiss Oberhausen (Friendlies Clubs)
Regionalliga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-weiss Oberhausen | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 31 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund II | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 28 |
| 3 | Borussia M'gladbach II | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Gutersloh | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 23 |
| 5 | Sportfreunde Siegen | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Bonner SC | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 II | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | Westfalia Rhynern | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 | Bergisch Gladbach | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 16 |
| 10 | Hilden | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 15 |
| 11 | Köln II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bochum II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | FC Bocholt | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Paderborn II | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | SG Wattenscheid 09 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | SV Rodinghausen | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Wiedenbrück | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Sportfreunde Lotte | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Rot-weiss Oberhausen win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.