Aspmyra Stadion · Referee Sigurd Smehus Kringstad, Norway · Analysis updated 13:51 UTC
Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.82 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.78 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 4.60. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt win
89.1% probability
Expected goals
3.82 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bodo/Glimt home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kristiansund BK away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–09.3%
- 4–08.9%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.3%
- 4–17.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 5.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +2.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.02 | 95.1% | 96.3% | 1.04 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 26.00 | 3.6% | 3.7% | 27.03 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 9.00 | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.17 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.06 | 89.1% | 89.1% | 1.12 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 13.00 | 7.3% | 7.2% | 13.89 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.03 | 94.2% | 92.8% | 1.08 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 2.09 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandefjord · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-5 (L)
Kristiansund BK
- 2026-10-04T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Molde · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brattvåg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Tromso · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2025-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 7-1 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2025-07-05T18:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2024-09-29T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2024-05-12T12:30:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2022-10-23T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 5-0 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2022-06-18T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
- 2021-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 3-0 Kristiansund BK (Eliteserien)
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -13 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bodo/Glimt win, at 89.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.