Aspmyra Stadion · Referee Ola Hobber Nilsen, Norway · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Bodo/Glimt vs Rosenborg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.00 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt win
60.0% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bodo/Glimt home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Rosenborg away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.1%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandefjord · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-5 (L)
Rosenborg
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostersunds FK · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fløya · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tromso · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ham-Kam · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-29T17:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2025-09-21T12:30:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2025-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 4-0 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2024-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 2-3 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2024-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2023-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 1-1 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2023-05-13T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 3-2 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2022-10-30T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 2-3 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2022-04-03T18:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 2-2 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
- 2021-11-28T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 0-0 Rosenborg (Eliteserien)
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -13 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bodo/Glimt win, at 60.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.