Aspmyra Stadion · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Bodo/Glimt vs Valerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.45 for Valerenga, a combined total of 4.13. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt win
63.5% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bodo/Glimt home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Valerenga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.3%
- 2–26.1%
- 2–05.8%
Recent form
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandefjord · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-5 (L)
Valerenga
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skeid · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 2-1 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2025-11-01T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 1-3 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2025-07-26T16:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 7-2 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2023-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Valerenga (NM Cupen)
- 2023-09-24T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 4-2 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2023-06-04T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2022-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 6-0 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
- 2022-06-29T18:15:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Valerenga (NM Cupen)
- 2022-04-18T18:00:00.000Z · Bodo/Glimt 5-1 Valerenga (Eliteserien)
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -13 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bodo/Glimt win, at 63.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.