National Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 07:08 UTC
Boeung Ket vs NagaWorld Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Boeung Ket and 2.28 for NagaWorld, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives NagaWorld the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
NagaWorld win
56.3% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boeung Ket home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
NagaWorld away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates NagaWorld to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 20% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Boeung Ket and 2.28 for NagaWorld, a combined 3.72 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.0%
- 1–36.9%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–26.3%
Recent form
Boeung Ket
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kompong Dewa · 4-3 (W)
NagaWorld
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Boeung Ket · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kompong Dewa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs National Defense · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Life Sihanoukville · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Phnom Penh Crown · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | NagaWorld | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 4 | Angkor Tiger | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 5 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Dangkor Senchey | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Life Sihanoukville | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 3 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is NagaWorld win, at 56.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.