National Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Boeung Ket vs National Defense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.48 expected goals for Boeung Ket and 1.81 for National Defense, a combined total of 5.28. That distribution gives Boeung Ket the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Boeung Ket win
69.0% probability
Expected goals
3.48 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
National Defense away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boeung Ket to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 14% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.48 goals for Boeung Ket and 1.81 for National Defense, a combined 5.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 89% and both teams to score at 80%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.4%
- 3–25.8%
- 4–15.6%
- 2–15.5%
- 4–25.0%
Recent form
Boeung Ket
National Defense
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Visakha · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 5 | Kompong Dewa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 3 |
| 7 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Angkor Tiger | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Boeung Ket | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Life Sihanoukville | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | National Defense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boeung Ket win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 80% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.