National Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
Boeung Ket vs Phnom Penh Crown Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Boeung Ket and 1.92 for Phnom Penh Crown, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Boeung Ket the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.0% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Phnom Penh Crown away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boeung Ket to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 20% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Boeung Ket and 1.92 for Phnom Penh Crown, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 76%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–16.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Boeung Ket
Phnom Penh Crown
- 2026-10-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kuching FA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Angkor Tiger · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 5 | Kompong Dewa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 3 |
| 7 | Phnom Penh Crown | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Angkor Tiger | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 9 | Boeung Ket | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 10 | Life Sihanoukville | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | National Defense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.