National Olympic Stadium · Analysis updated 19:26 UTC
Boeung Ket vs Svay Rieng Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Boeung Ket and 1.79 for Svay Rieng, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Boeung Ket the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boeung Ket win
49.2% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boeung Ket home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Svay Rieng away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boeung Ket to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 20% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Boeung Ket and 1.79 for Svay Rieng, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–17.0%
- 1–26.3%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Boeung Ket
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kompong Dewa · 4-3 (W)
Svay Rieng
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-05-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phnom Penh Crown · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-13T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Al Kuwait · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Boeung Ket · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boeung Ket win, at 49.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.