Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 23:19 UTC
Bogota FC vs Envigado Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Bogota FC and 1.23 for Envigado, a combined total of 2.28. That distribution gives Envigado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bogota FC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Envigado away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Envigado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 32% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Bogota FC and 1.23 for Envigado, a combined 2.28 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.6%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–010.3%
- 1–28.1%
Recent form
Bogota FC
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Cundinamarca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Envigado · 3-3 (D)
Envigado
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Patriotas · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bogota FC · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.