Estadio Metropolitano de Techo · Analysis updated 17:10 UTC
Bogota FC vs Leones FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bogota FC and 0.72 for Leones FC, a combined total of 1.88. That distribution gives Bogota FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 29% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bogota FC win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 0.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bogota FC home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leones FC away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bogota FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 31% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Bogota FC and 0.72 for Leones FC, a combined 1.88 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.8%
- 0–015.3%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.0%
- 2–010.3%
Recent form
Bogota FC
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Santander · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-19T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Orsomarso · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Cundinamarca · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Envigado · 3-3 (D)
Leones FC
- 2026-10-24T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Santander · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-15T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Magdalena · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bogota FC win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 29%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.