Bohemians 1905 vs Plzen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.50 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Bohemians 1905 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bohemians 1905 home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Plzen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bohemians 1905 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 24% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.50 for Plzen, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bohemians 1905 win40%

Draw24%

Plzen win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

60%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.9%
2–18.6%
1–28.2%
1–07.2%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Bohemians 1905

2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Baník Ostrava · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bohemians · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pardubice · 1-2 (L)

Plzen

2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Czech Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Slavia Praha	11	8	3	0	20	27
2	Sigma Olomouc	11	6	2	3	4	20
3	Slovan Liberec	11	6	2	3	6	20
4	Mlada Boleslav	11	6	2	3	5	20
5	Zbrojovka Brno	11	6	1	4	0	19
6	Sparta Praha	11	6	1	4	8	19
7	Teplice	11	5	2	4	1	17
8	FK Jablonec	11	5	2	4	2	17
9	Plzen	11	4	4	3	4	16
10	Bohemians 1905	10	4	3	3	0	15
11	Hradec Králové	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Pardubice	11	3	2	6	-4	11
13	Baník Ostrava	11	3	2	6	-11	11
14	Artis	10	2	2	6	-9	8
15	Slovácko	11	1	4	6	-8	7
16	Zlin	11	0	1	10	-15	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.