Dalymount Park · Analysis updated 14:28 UTC
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.68 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 3.06. That distribution gives Bohemians the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bohemians win
75.1% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bohemians home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bohemians to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 75% / 16% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Bohemians and 0.68 for Sligo Rovers, a combined 3.06 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 59% and both teams to score at 45%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–013.2%
- 1–011.1%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
Bohemians
- 2026-10-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Shamrock Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Waterford · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundalk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Drogheda United · 2-1 (W)
Sligo Rovers
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 65 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 27 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 59 |
| 4 | Shelbourne | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 1 | 43 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | -34 | 23 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bohemians win, at 75.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.