· Analysis updated 07:41 UTC
Boiro vs Villalbés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Boiro and 0.95 for Villalbés, a combined total of 2.57. That distribution gives Boiro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Boiro win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boiro home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Villalbés away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Boiro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 25% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Boiro and 0.95 for Villalbés, a combined 2.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.7%
Recent form
Boiro
- 2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Alondras · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Viveiro · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estradense · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Villalbés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Silva · 2-0 (W)
Villalbés
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Viveiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Estradense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Silva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Boiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Sarriana | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Celtiga | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Somozas | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Boiro win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.