Stadion pod Vrmcem · Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bokelj and 0.68 for Arsenal Tivat, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Bokelj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bokelj win
51.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bokelj home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tivat away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.0%
- 0–013.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–19.4%
Recent form
Bokelj
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-0 (W)
Arsenal Tivat
- 2026-10-22T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Buducnost Podgorica · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mornar · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · Bokelj 0-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2026-07-08T16:30:00.000Z · Bokelj 3-1 Arsenal Tivat (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-16T18:00:00.000Z · Bokelj 3-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2026-03-15T15:30:00.000Z · Bokelj 0-1 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-11-22T12:00:00.000Z · Bokelj 2-0 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-09-17T15:30:00.000Z · Bokelj 1-2 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-05-10T15:30:00.000Z · Bokelj 1-1 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2025-03-12T13:00:00.000Z · Bokelj 0-1 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2024-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Bokelj 1-2 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
- 2024-08-31T14:45:00.000Z · Bokelj 1-1 Arsenal Tivat (First League)
First League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Otrant-Olympic | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Mornar | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 3 | Sutjeska | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Buducnost Podgorica | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 6 | Dečić | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | Mladost DG | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 12 |
| 8 | Petrovac | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Jezero | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 10 | Arsenal Tivat | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bokelj win, at 51.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.