Stadion pod Vrmcem · Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Bokelj vs Buducnost Podgorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bokelj and 1.18 for Buducnost Podgorica, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Bokelj the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.0% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bokelj home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Buducnost Podgorica away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bokelj to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 26% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Bokelj and 1.18 for Buducnost Podgorica, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–07.5%
Recent form
Bokelj
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal Tivat · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Dečić · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Petrovac · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Otrant-Olympic · 1-0 (W)
Buducnost Podgorica
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sutjeska · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrovac · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mladost DG · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Jezero · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Otrant-Olympic · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jezero | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Mladost DG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Mornar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Arsenal Tivat | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Bokelj | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Buducnost Podgorica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Grbalj | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Dečić | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Sutjeska | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Otrant-Olympic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Lovćen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 12 | Iskra | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.