Bolívar vs Aragua FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bolívar and 1.15 for Aragua FC, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Bolívar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bolívar home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Aragua FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bolívar win36%

Draw28%

Aragua FC win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–111.5%
1–011.5%
0–010.0%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Bolívar

2026-10-25T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Avila FC · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Mineros de Guyana · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Marítimo · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-07T22:15:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz · 2-0 (W)

Aragua FC

2026-09-27T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-05T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Monagas II · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-01T20:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 0-1 Aragua FC (Segunda División)
2026-05-03T19:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 0-0 Aragua FC (Segunda División)
2026-03-07T20:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-2 Aragua FC (Segunda División)
2025-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-0 Aragua FC (Segunda División)
2025-08-03T20:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-0 Aragua FC (Segunda División)
2025-06-08T19:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-1 Aragua FC (Segunda División)
2025-04-20T20:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 0-0 Aragua FC (Segunda División)

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Deportivo Lara	32	21	7	4	32	70
2	Fundación Lara Deportiva	32	16	8	8	22	56
3	Yaracuyanos FC	32	16	7	9	19	55
4	Urena SC	32	12	12	8	3	48
5	Atletico el Vigia FC	32	12	8	12	-9	44
6	Zamora FC B	31	12	7	12	4	43
7	Club Atletico Barinas	32	10	5	17	-10	35
8	Puerto Cabello II	33	9	7	17	-14	34
9	Real Frontera	32	4	3	25	-47	15
1	Monagas II	25	13	6	6	11	45
2	Aragua FC	26	11	10	5	10	43
3	Petare FC	26	12	6	8	9	42
4	Bolívar	26	12	5	9	0	41
5	Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz	26	9	9	8	3	36
6	Mineros de Guyana	26	4	10	12	-10	22
7	Marítimo	15	5	5	5	0	20
8	Atletico Avila FC	26	1	11	14	-23	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.