Bolívar vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Bolívar and 0.93 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Bolívar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bolívar win

75.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.75 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bolívar home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolívar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.75 goals for Bolívar and 0.93 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bolívar win76%

Draw15%

Gualberto Villarroel SJ win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

25%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

2–09.6%
2–18.9%
3–08.8%
3–18.1%
1–07.0%

Recent form

Bolívar

2026-10-21T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Potosí · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-09T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Blooming · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-04T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Petrolero · 3-0 (W)

Gualberto Villarroel SJ

2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Always Ready	23	15	6	2	39	51
2	Bolívar	22	16	3	3	34	51
3	The Strongest	22	13	6	3	17	45
4	Real Potosí	23	10	8	5	14	38
5	Oriente Petrolero	22	10	4	8	10	34
6	Aurora	22	7	10	5	3	31
7	Guabirá	22	8	6	8	-10	30
8	Independiente Petrolero	23	8	5	10	-8	29
9	Blooming	23	6	10	7	6	28
10	Nacional Potosí	22	8	4	10	1	28
11	Real Oruro	23	8	3	12	-19	27
12	San Antonio Bulo Bulo	23	7	3	13	-19	24
13	Universitario de Vinto	22	6	3	13	-14	21
14	Gualberto Villarroel SJ	23	4	8	11	-13	20
15	ABB	23	6	2	15	-18	20
16	Real Tomayapo	22	5	5	12	-23	20

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bolívar win, at 75.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.