· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Bolívar vs Monagas SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bolívar and 2.30 for Monagas SC, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Monagas SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Monagas SC win
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 2.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolívar home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Monagas SC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Monagas SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 16% / 19% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Bolívar and 2.30 for Monagas SC, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–18.5%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–37.5%
Recent form
Bolívar
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Monagas SC · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Petare FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Avila FC · 2-1 (W)
Monagas SC
- 2026-10-07T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Guyana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Zuliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Caracas FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 5-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Urena SC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 3 | Trujillanos FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Deportivo Lara | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -16 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Monagas SC win, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.