Estadio Hernando Siles · Referee D. Rodriguez · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Bolívar vs The Strongest Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Bolívar and 1.22 for The Strongest, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Bolívar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bolívar win
58.4% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolívar home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
The Strongest away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Bolívar
- 2026-10-04T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Independiente Petrolero · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · A vs The Strongest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 4-2 (W)
The Strongest
- 2026-10-01T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Oriente Petrolero · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Guabirá · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Bolívar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T21:15:00.000Z · A vs ABB · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T21:15:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-1 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-08-30T21:15:00.000Z · Bolívar 4-2 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-07-12T21:15:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-1 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2026-02-06T23:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 0-0 The Strongest (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2026-01-30T23:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 2-2 The Strongest (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2025-11-30T21:15:00.000Z · Bolívar 3-2 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2025-11-09T21:15:00.000Z · Bolívar 5-3 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-08-28T00:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-0 The Strongest (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-06-22T19:00:00.000Z · Bolívar 1-2 The Strongest (Primera División)
- 2024-12-08T21:30:00.000Z · Bolívar 4-1 The Strongest (Primera División)
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolívar | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 2 | Aurora | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Nacional Potosí | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 17 |
| 4 | Independiente Petrolero | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | The Strongest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Potosí | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Oriente Petrolero | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Always Ready | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bolívar win, at 58.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.