Aspire Zone · Analysis updated 06:31 UTC
Bolivia U17 vs Italy U17 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bolivia U17 and 1.76 for Italy U17, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Italy U17 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Italy U17 win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.76
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolivia U17 home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Italy U17 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Italy U17 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 24% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Bolivia U17 and 1.76 for Italy U17, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Bolivia U17
- 2026-04-18T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Venezuela U17 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-16T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Chile U17 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-08T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Peru U17 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela U17 · 2-2 (D)
Italy U17
- 2026-06-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain U17 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-01T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Denmark U17 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-05-29T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Montenegro U17 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-26T11:30:00.000Z · H vs France U17 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U17 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Italy U17 win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.