· Analysis updated 19:51 UTC
Bolivia vs Gambia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bolivia and 1.70 for Gambia, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Bolivia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolivia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gambia away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolivia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 22% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Bolivia and 1.70 for Gambia, a combined 3.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.4%
Recent form
Bolivia
- 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-01T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraq · 1-2 (L)
Gambia
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Somalia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iran · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuwait · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.