Audi Field · Referee R. Mendoza · Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Bolivia vs Paraguay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Bolivia and 1.75 for Paraguay, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Paraguay the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paraguay win
59.3% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolivia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paraguay away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 0–211.7%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Bolivia
- 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-01T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraq · 1-2 (L)
Paraguay
- 2026-07-04T21:00:00.000Z · H vs France · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-29T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Germany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Australia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T01:00:00.000Z · A vs USA · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2024-11-19T20:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 2-2 Paraguay (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2023-10-17T22:30:00.000Z · Bolivia 0-1 Paraguay (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2021-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 4-0 Paraguay (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2021-06-15T00:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 1-3 Paraguay (Copa America)
- 2020-11-17T23:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 2-2 Paraguay (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2016-11-15T20:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 1-0 Paraguay (World Cup - Qualification South America)
- 2015-11-17T23:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 1-2 Paraguay (World Cup - Qualification South America)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paraguay win, at 59.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.