Sports Illustrated Stadium · Referee Rosendo Mendoza, USA · Analysis updated 01:37 UTC
Bolivia vs Scotland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bolivia and 1.00 for Scotland, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Bolivia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolivia home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolivia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Bolivia and 1.00 for Scotland, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.4%
- 1–113.4%
- 0–011.6%
- 0–111.6%
- 2–07.7%
Recent form
Bolivia
- 2026-10-01T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentina · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Paraguay · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-01T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraq · 1-2 (L)
Scotland
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovenia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-24T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Brazil · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-19T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Morocco · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-14T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Haiti · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-06T20:00:00.000Z · Bolivia 0-4 Scotland (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.