· Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
Böljan vs Varbergs BoIS FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Böljan and 1.49 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Böljan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Böljan win
45.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Böljan home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Varbergs BoIS FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Böljan to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Böljan and 1.49 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.7%
Recent form
Böljan
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kongahälla · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindome · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Jonsered · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dalstorps · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Landvetter IS · 1-1 (D)
Varbergs BoIS FC
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Orebro SK · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Böljan · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs United Nordic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandviken · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Falkenbergs FF · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Böljan win, at 45.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.