· Analysis updated 08:53 UTC
Bollstanäs vs United Nordic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bollstanäs and 2.48 for United Nordic, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives United Nordic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
United Nordic win
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 2.48
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bollstanäs home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
United Nordic away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates United Nordic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 14% / 17% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Bollstanäs and 2.48 for United Nordic, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–29.4%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–37.8%
- 1–17.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 3.20 | 28.5% | 30.6% | 3.27 | +2.1 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.77 | 52.4% | 54.0% | 1.85 | +1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.60 | 56.8% | 58.2% | 1.72 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 7.00 | 12.9% | 13.5% | 7.41 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Away | 1.30 | 69.4% | 69.5% | 1.44 | +0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.38 | 67.6% | 67.6% | 1.48 | -0.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.88 | 32.4% | 32.4% | 3.09 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.10 | 17.7% | 17.1% | 5.85 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.09 | 83.7% | 83.0% | 1.20 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.04 | 87.8% | 86.6% | 1.15 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 43.2% | 41.8% | 2.39 | -1.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 1.95 | 47.6% | 46.0% | 2.17 | -1.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bollstanäs
- 2026-10-03T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Lidingö · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Enskede · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skiljebo · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunnersta · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Angby · 0-5 (L)
United Nordic
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Norrkoping · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bollstanäs · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs IK brage · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Falkenbergs FF · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · Bollstanäs 0-2 United Nordic (Svenska Cupen)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is United Nordic win, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.