· Analysis updated 10:34 UTC
Bollullos vs Dos Hermanas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bollullos and 2.25 for Dos Hermanas, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Dos Hermanas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Dos Hermanas win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bollullos home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dos Hermanas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dos Hermanas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 18% / 20% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Bollullos and 2.25 for Dos Hermanas, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
38%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.7%
- 1–18.6%
- 0–28.4%
- 0–17.5%
- 1–37.3%
Recent form
Bollullos
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Chiclana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Egabrense · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Xerez Deportivo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Betis C · 3-3 (D)
Dos Hermanas
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla III · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Portuense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceuta II · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Córdoba II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tomares | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Portuense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Pozoblanco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | San Roque Lepe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Conil | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dos Hermanas win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.