Italy · Serie A · Matchweek 1417:30

17:30 UTC

Sunday, 6 December 2026

· Analysis updated 08:04 UTC

Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bologna and 1.60 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.72 – 1.60

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bologna win41%
Draw23%
AS Roma win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals42%
Both teams to score66%

Correct score

  • 1–110.0%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 1–28.0%
  • 2–26.8%
  • 1–06.2%

Why the model likes this

  • Bologna home form

    7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • AS Roma away threat

    Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Bologna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.72 goals for Bologna and 1.60 for AS Roma, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Bologna

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
  • 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
  • 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)

AS Roma

  • 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
  • 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Atalanta000000
2Bologna000000
3Cagliari000000
4Como000000
5Fiorentina000000
6Frosinone000000
7Genoa000000
8Inter000000
9Juventus000000
10Lazio000000
11Lecce000000
12AC Milan000000
13Monza000000
14Napoli000000
15Parma000000
16AS Roma000000
17Sassuolo000000
18Torino000000
19Udinese000000
20Venezia000000

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.