· Analysis updated 08:04 UTC
Bologna vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Bologna and 1.60 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.2%
Why the model likes this
Bologna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bologna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Bologna and 1.60 for AS Roma, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Bologna
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)
AS Roma
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Newport County · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cardiff · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-07-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cannes · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.