Bologna vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bologna and 1.43 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bologna win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bologna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bologna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Bologna and 1.43 for Fiorentina, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bologna win45%

Draw23%

Fiorentina win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.1%
1–27.4%
1–07.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Bologna

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)

Fiorentina

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Napoli · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-01-18T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2025-10-26T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2025-05-18T18:45:00.000Z · Bologna 2-3 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2024-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2024-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2024-01-09T20:00:00.000Z · Bologna 0-0 Fiorentina (Coppa Italia)
2023-11-12T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2023-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2022-03-13T11:30:00.000Z · Bologna 0-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bologna win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.