Bologna vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bologna and 1.01 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Bologna to Win

49.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.01

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bologna win50%

Draw26%

Fiorentina win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.1%
1–012.1%
2–19.4%
2–09.3%
0–17.9%

Why the model likes this

Bologna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bologna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Bologna and 1.01 for Fiorentina, a combined 2.55 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Bologna

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)

Fiorentina

Head-to-head

2026-01-18T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2025-10-26T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2025-05-18T18:45:00.000Z · Bologna 2-3 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2024-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2024-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-0 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2024-01-09T20:00:00.000Z · Bologna 0-0 Fiorentina (Coppa Italia)
2023-11-12T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2023-02-05T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2022-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · Bologna 2-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)
2022-03-13T11:30:00.000Z · Bologna 0-1 Fiorentina (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.