· Analysis updated 08:05 UTC
Bologna vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bologna and 1.53 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–17.4%
Why the model likes this
Bologna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Bologna and 1.53 for Frosinone, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Bologna
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)
Frosinone
- 2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie A table
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.