Renato Dall'Ara · Referee Fabio Maresca, Italy · Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Bologna vs Lazio Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bologna and 1.03 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.9% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bologna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lazio away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.8%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.22 | 76.6% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +2.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.85 | 50.7% | 52.9% | 1.89 | +2.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.26 | 41.4% | 43.3% | 2.31 | +1.9 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +1.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.33 | 70.1% | 70.9% | 1.41 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 28.4% | 29.1% | 3.44 | +0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.7% | 72.4% | 1.38 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -1.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.2% | 56.7% | 1.76 | -1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.90 | 49.3% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -2.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.00 | 23.4% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -2.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 30.2% | 27.6% | 3.62 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bologna
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
Lazio
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Juve Stabia · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 0-2 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2026-02-11T20:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-1 Lazio (Coppa Italia)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 1-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2025-03-16T14:00:00.000Z · Bologna 5-0 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2024-11-24T19:45:00.000Z · Bologna 0-3 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2024-02-18T11:30:00.000Z · Bologna 2-1 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2023-11-03T19:45:00.000Z · Bologna 1-0 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2023-03-11T19:45:00.000Z · Bologna 0-0 Lazio (Serie A)
- 2023-01-19T17:00:00.000Z · Bologna 0-1 Lazio (Coppa Italia)
- 2022-08-14T16:30:00.000Z · Bologna 1-2 Lazio (Serie A)
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| 3 | AS Roma | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 14 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | AC Milan | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Juventus | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Frosinone | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Atalanta | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Torino | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Lecce | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | Bologna | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Genoa | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Parma | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.