Bologna vs Lecce Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bologna and 0.73 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.27. That distribution gives Bologna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Bologna to Win

56.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Bologna win57%

Draw26%

Lecce win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

1–015.9%
2–012.3%
1–111.6%
0–010.3%
2–18.9%

Why the model likes this

Bologna home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lecce away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bologna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Bologna and 0.73 for Lecce, a combined 2.27 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Bologna

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brighton · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Pisa · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cambuur · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 1-1 (D)

Lecce

2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Monopoli · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bistrica · 5-2 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Istra 1961 · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-22T15:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Politehnica Timisoara · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Szombathelyi Haladas · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.