· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Bologna vs Pisa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bologna and 1.90 for Pisa, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Pisa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pisa win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bologna home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pisa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Bologna and 1.90 for Pisa, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
48%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.7%
- 2–16.4%
Recent form
Bologna
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lecce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sassuolo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-31T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
Pisa
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Entella · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Juve Stabia · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Catanzaro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Padova · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pisa win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.