· Analysis updated 00:36 UTC
Bolton Wanderers Res. vs Queens Park Rangers U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Bolton Wanderers Res. and 1.88 for Queens Park Rangers U21, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Bolton Wanderers Res. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bolton Wanderers Res. win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolton Wanderers Res. home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Queens Park Rangers U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bolton Wanderers Res. to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 18% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Bolton Wanderers Res. and 1.88 for Queens Park Rangers U21, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.3%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.5%
Recent form
Bolton Wanderers Res.
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 3-1 (W)
Queens Park Rangers U21
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff City U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Coventry City U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea City U21 · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · Bolton Wanderers Res. 3-1 Queens Park Rangers U21 (Professional Development League)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · Bolton Wanderers Res. 1-4 Queens Park Rangers U21 (Premier League Cup)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bolton Wanderers Res. win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.