· Analysis updated 09:38 UTC
Bolton Wanderers Res. vs Southampton U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Bolton Wanderers Res. and 2.58 for Southampton U21, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives Southampton U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Southampton U21 win
60.4% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 2.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bolton Wanderers Res. home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Southampton U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southampton U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 22% / 18% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Bolton Wanderers Res. and 2.58 for Southampton U21, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–16.5%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–25.5%
Recent form
Bolton Wanderers Res.
- 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan Athletic U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield United U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Queens Park Rangers U21 · 3-1 (W)
Southampton U21
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham United U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Truro City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Southampton U21 win, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.