Bolu Atatürk Stadium · Referee Alpaslan Sen, Türkiye · Analysis updated 08:06 UTC
Boluspor vs Manisa F.K. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Boluspor and 2.03 for Manisa F.K., a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Manisa F.K. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Manisa F.K. win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 2.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Boluspor home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Manisa F.K. away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–211.0%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 0–37.4%
Recent form
Boluspor
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Iğdır FK · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Antalyaspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarıyer · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pendikspor · 1-1 (D)
Manisa F.K.
- 2026-10-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muğlaspor · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Esenler Erokspor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kayserispor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs İstanbulspor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fatih Karagümrük · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-07T18:30:00.000Z · Boluspor 1-2 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2026-02-08T16:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 1-4 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2025-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 2-0 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2025-02-21T17:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 2-0 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2024-09-28T16:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 2-0 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2024-05-05T13:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 0-1 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2023-12-21T11:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 1-0 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2023-01-14T10:30:00.000Z · Boluspor 3-1 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2022-08-13T14:00:00.000Z · Boluspor 1-0 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
- 2022-04-02T10:30:00.000Z · Boluspor 1-2 Manisa F.K. (1. Lig)
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 26 |
| 2 | Bursaspor | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Iğdır FK | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 | Keçiörengücü | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 5 | Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 6 | Mardin 1969 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Antalyaspor | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18 |
| 8 | Sarıyer | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muğlaspor | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Bandırmaspor | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 11 | Bodrum FK | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Sivasspor | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 13 | Fatih Karagümrük | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 14 | Esenler Erokspor | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Ümraniyespor | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 16 | Manisa F.K. | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 17 | Pendikspor | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 10 |
| 18 | Vanspor FK | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 19 | İstanbulspor | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 5 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -19 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Manisa F.K. win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.