· Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Bom Jesus EC vs Crixás EC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Bom Jesus EC and 0.78 for Crixás EC, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Bom Jesus EC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bom Jesus EC win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bom Jesus EC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crixás EC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bom Jesus EC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 29% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Bom Jesus EC and 0.78 for Crixás EC, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.4%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–112.7%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–110.0%
Recent form
Bom Jesus EC
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Verde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Goiânia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tupy FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Mineiros · 0-1 (L)
Crixás EC
- 2026-09-27T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Morrinhos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Trindade · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tupy FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Mineiros · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Anápolis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Goiano - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rio Verde | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 32 |
| 2 | Bom Jesus EC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 31 |
| 3 | Goianésia | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Mineiros | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Morrinhos | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 | Goiânia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Tupy FC | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Crixás EC | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | -7 | 16 |
| 9 | Trindade | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -10 | 12 |
| 10 | Grêmio Anápolis | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bom Jesus EC win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.