Bonaire vs Cuba Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bonaire and 2.04 for Cuba, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Cuba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Cuba win

46.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 2.04

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cuba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cuba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 33% / 21% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Bonaire and 2.04 for Cuba, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 71%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Bonaire win33%

Draw21%

Cuba win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals51%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–28.4%
1–18.2%
2–27.1%
2–17.0%
1–35.7%

Recent form

Bonaire

Cuba

2026-10-02T21:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Kitts and Nevis · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Bonaire · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-25T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Grenada · 3-0 (W)
2026-03-29T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Dominican Republic · 1-1 (D)
2026-03-26T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Martinique · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

CONCACAF Nations League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guyana	4	4	0	0	14	12
2	Montserrat	4	4	0	0	10	12
3	St. Vincent / Grenadines	4	4	0	0	8	12
4	Curaçao	4	3	1	0	7	10
5	Barbados	4	3	1	0	6	10
6	Saint Martin	4	3	0	1	17	9
7	St. Lucia	4	3	0	1	5	9
8	Puerto Rico	4	3	0	1	5	9
9	Haiti	4	3	0	1	4	9
10	Aruba	3	3	0	0	4	9
11	Dominican Republic	4	3	0	1	0	9
12	US Virgin Islands	4	3	0	1	0	9
13	Cuba	4	2	2	0	5	8
14	St. Kitts and Nevis	4	2	2	0	4	8
15	Guatemala	4	2	1	1	6	7
16	Jamaica	4	2	1	1	2	7
17	Suriname	4	2	1	1	1	7
18	Antigua and Barbuda	3	2	0	1	7	6
19	Costa Rica	4	2	0	2	2	6
20	French Guyana	3	2	0	1	2	6
21	Turks and Caicos Islands	4	2	0	2	1	6
22	Honduras	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Martinique	4	1	1	2	-2	4
24	Guadeloupe	4	1	1	2	-3	4
25	El Salvador	4	1	1	2	-6	4
26	Bonaire	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Belize	3	1	0	2	-2	3
28	Grenada	4	1	0	3	-8	3
29	Trinidad and Tobago	4	0	1	3	-3	1
30	Cayman Islands	4	0	1	3	-6	1
31	Dominica	4	0	1	3	-13	1
32	Bermuda	4	0	0	4	-8	0
33	Sint Maarten	4	0	0	4	-8	0
34	Nicaragua	4	0	0	4	-10	0
35	Anguilla	4	0	0	4	-11	0
36	British Virgin Islands	4	0	0	4	-11	0
37	Bahamas	4	0	0	4	-17	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cuba win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.