Bonner SC vs Sportfreunde Lotte Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.17 expected goals for Bonner SC and 0.87 for Sportfreunde Lotte, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Bonner SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bonner SC win

67.2% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.17 – 0.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bonner SC home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sportfreunde Lotte away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Bonner SC win67%

Draw19%

Sportfreunde Lotte win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.3%
1–010.4%
2–19.8%
1–19.0%
3–08.2%

Recent form

Bonner SC

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiedenbrück · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Westfalia Rhynern · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Wattenscheid 09 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bergisch Gladbach · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 3-3 (D)

Sportfreunde Lotte

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportfreunde Siegen · 1-4 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Bocholt · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Paderborn II · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Rodinghausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia M'gladbach II · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · Bonner SC 2-2 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · Bonner SC 1-2 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2025-11-22T13:00:00.000Z · Bonner SC 0-1 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2022-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · Bonner SC 0-2 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2021-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · Bonner SC 2-0 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2021-01-16T13:00:00.000Z · Bonner SC 0-1 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2020-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · Bonner SC 2-2 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)
2019-09-24T17:30:00.000Z · Bonner SC 4-1 Sportfreunde Lotte (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund II	14	10	4	0	17	34
2	Rot-weiss Oberhausen	13	10	1	2	19	31
3	FC Gutersloh	14	9	2	3	11	29
4	Borussia M'gladbach II	14	8	2	4	13	26
5	Sportfreunde Siegen	14	7	4	3	11	25
6	Köln II	14	6	3	5	3	21
7	Westfalia Rhynern	14	6	3	5	-2	21
8	Schalke 04 II	14	6	2	6	2	20
9	Hilden	14	5	4	5	-5	19
10	Bonner SC	14	4	6	4	1	18
11	FC Bocholt	14	4	5	5	-3	17
12	Bergisch Gladbach	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bochum II	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Paderborn II	13	3	5	5	-4	14
15	SG Wattenscheid 09	13	3	3	7	-6	12
16	SV Rodinghausen	14	2	4	8	-7	10
17	Wiedenbrück	14	2	2	10	-19	8
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	14	1	3	10	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bonner SC win, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.