Estádio Leônidas da Silva · Analysis updated 11:37 UTC
Bonsucesso vs Nova Cidade Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bonsucesso and 0.85 for Nova Cidade, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Bonsucesso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bonsucesso win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bonsucesso home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Nova Cidade away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bonsucesso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 29% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Bonsucesso and 0.85 for Nova Cidade, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–012.2%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.6%
Recent form
Bonsucesso
- 2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Madureira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Madureira · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Olaria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T17:45:00.000Z · H vs América RJ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cabofriense · 0-0 (D)
Nova Cidade
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Audax Rio · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Goytacaz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Niteroiense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs São Cristóvão RJ · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Duque de Caxias · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · Bonsucesso 1-0 Nova Cidade (Carioca - 2)
- 2020-10-28T18:00:00.000Z · Bonsucesso 1-0 Nova Cidade (Carioca - 2)
- 2019-08-04T18:00:00.000Z · Bonsucesso 4-0 Nova Cidade (Carioca - 2)
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bonsucesso win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.