Estádio Leônidas da Silva · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Bonsucesso vs Paduano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Bonsucesso and 1.10 for Paduano, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Bonsucesso the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bonsucesso win
48.3% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bonsucesso home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Paduano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bonsucesso to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Bonsucesso and 1.10 for Paduano, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.5%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
Bonsucesso
- 2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Madureira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Madureira · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Olaria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T17:45:00.000Z · H vs América RJ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cabofriense · 0-0 (D)
Paduano
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Macaense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz RJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-11-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Niteroiense · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bonsucesso win, at 48.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.