· Analysis updated 03:43 UTC
Bonsucesso vs Resende Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Bonsucesso and 1.23 for Resende, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Resende the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bonsucesso home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Resende away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Resende to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Bonsucesso and 1.23 for Resende, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.4%
- 1–010.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Bonsucesso
- 2026-07-22T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Madureira · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-15T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Madureira · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Olaria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-01T17:45:00.000Z · H vs América RJ · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-06-23T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cabofriense · 0-0 (D)
Resende
- 2026-08-01T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Americano Campos · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Americano Campos · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-22T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CFRJ / Maricá · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca A2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Americano Campos | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | CFRJ / Maricá | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Resende | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | América RJ | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Pérolas Negras | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 6 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Bonsucesso | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Olaria | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Cabofriense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | CEAC / Araruama | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Audax Rio | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.