Bőny SE sporttelep (Bőny) · Analysis updated 07:57 UTC
Bőny vs Budapest Honved Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bőny and 2.05 for Budapest Honved, a combined total of 3.52. That distribution gives Budapest Honved the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Budapest Honved win
51.1% probability
Expected goals
1.47 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bőny home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Budapest Honved away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Budapest Honved to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 28% / 21% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.47 goals for Bőny and 2.05 for Budapest Honved, a combined 3.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–26.7%
- 2–16.6%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Bőny
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lebeny SE · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Móri SE · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ujperint SE · 1-0 (W)
- 2023-08-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mezőörs · 1-6 (L)
- 2018-09-23T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Budapest Honved · 0-6 (L)
Budapest Honved
- 2026-10-11T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Puskas Academy · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bajai · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gyori ETO FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zalaegerszegi TE · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2018-09-23T10:30:00.000Z · Bőny 0-6 Budapest Honved (Magyar Kupa)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Budapest Honved win, at 51.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.