Borac Banja Luka vs ML Vitebsk Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka and 2.00 for ML Vitebsk, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives ML Vitebsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

65.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Borac Banja Luka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
ML Vitebsk away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ML Vitebsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 21% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Borac Banja Luka and 2.00 for ML Vitebsk, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Borac Banja Luka win34%

Draw21%

ML Vitebsk win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

1–18.2%
1–28.2%
2–17.2%
2–27.2%
1–35.5%

Recent form

Borac Banja Luka

2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 3-2 (W)

ML Vitebsk

2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Vitebsk · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Neman · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Gomel · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-13T17:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 0-1 ML Vitebsk (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-06T18:30:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-0 ML Vitebsk (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	FC Lugano	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Brann	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Trabzonspor	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Twente	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Monaco	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	St. Truiden	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	HNK Hajduk Split	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Brighton	2	1	1	0	4	4
10	FC Copenhagen	2	1	1	0	3	4
11	Universitatea Craiova	2	1	1	0	2	4
12	Mjallby AIF	2	1	1	0	2	4
13	Ajax	2	1	0	1	1	3
14	Borac Banja Luka	2	1	0	1	1	3
15	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	0	3
16	SC Braga	2	1	0	1	-1	3
17	Gent	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	SC Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-2	3
19	FC Nordsjaelland	2	0	2	0	0	2
20	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	2	0	2	0	0	2
21	Riga	2	0	2	0	0	2
22	FK Crvena Zvezda	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	CSKA Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	FK Jablonec	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	FC Midtjylland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Aarhus	2	0	1	1	-1	1
27	Pafos	2	0	1	1	-2	1
28	Heart Of Midlothian	2	0	1	1	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	2	0	1	1	-2	1
30	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
31	Kairat Almaty	2	0	1	1	-4	1
32	FC Thun	2	0	0	2	-2	0
33	Lincoln Red Imps FC	2	0	0	2	-4	0
34	KuPS	2	0	0	2	-4	0
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	2	0	0	2	-4	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.