Gradski stadion Banja Luka · Referee A. Music · Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Borac Banja Luka vs Posušje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka and 1.22 for Posušje, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Borac Banja Luka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.0% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borac Banja Luka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Posušje away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borac Banja Luka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Borac Banja Luka and 1.22 for Posušje, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Borac Banja Luka
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 3-2 (W)
Posušje
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs GOŠK Gabela · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Čapljina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Hadžići · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Igman Konjic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Zvijezda Gradačac · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.