Gradski stadion Banja Luka · Referee Josip Martinović, Bosnia & Herzegovina · Analysis updated 23:51 UTC
Borac Banja Luka vs Sloga Doboj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka and 0.70 for Sloga Doboj, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Borac Banja Luka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borac Banja Luka win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borac Banja Luka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sloga Doboj away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 2–013.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Borac Banja Luka
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 3-2 (W)
Sloga Doboj
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zrinjski · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Sarajevo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Borac Banja Luka · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 2-1 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-04-26T15:30:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 3-1 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-02-20T15:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 4-0 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-11-02T19:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 2-1 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-08-17T15:30:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-0 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-04-28T19:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 3-1 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-12-01T12:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 4-0 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-11-20T12:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 2-0 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-04-12T18:30:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-0 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
- 2023-12-02T15:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 4-0 Sloga Doboj (Premijer Liga)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borac Banja Luka win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.