Gradski stadion Banja Luka · Referee A. Music · Analysis updated 17:30 UTC
Borac Banja Luka vs Velež Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka and 0.61 for Velež, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Borac Banja Luka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borac Banja Luka win
73.2% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borac Banja Luka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velež away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borac Banja Luka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 18% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Borac Banja Luka and 0.61 for Velež, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.6%
- 1–013.5%
- 3–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Borac Banja Luka
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 3-2 (W)
Velež
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Zrinjski · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 30 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Siroki Brijeg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 6 | Čelik | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 7 | BSK Banja Luka | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 8 | Sloga Doboj | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 10 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borac Banja Luka win, at 73.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.