Gradski stadion Banja Luka · Referee A. Efendic · Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Borac Banja Luka vs Zrinjski Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka and 1.67 for Zrinjski, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives Zrinjski the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zrinjski win
46.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borac Banja Luka home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Zrinjski away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–17.2%
- 0–27.2%
Recent form
Borac Banja Luka
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Siroki Brijeg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 2-1 (W)
Zrinjski
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Radnik Bijeljina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vojvodina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Velež · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Borac Banja Luka · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Siroki Brijeg · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-0 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-04-22T18:30:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-1 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2026-02-14T15:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 3-0 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-12-21T14:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 0-1 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-10-27T17:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-2 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2025-04-06T17:45:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-0 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-12-08T14:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 0-1 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-09-15T17:45:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 1-1 Zrinjski (Premijer Liga)
- 2024-05-23T16:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 0-1 Zrinjski (Cup)
- 2024-05-08T16:00:00.000Z · Borac Banja Luka 0-1 Zrinjski (Cup)
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Borac Banja Luka | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 22 |
| 2 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zrinjski win, at 46.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.