Gradski stadion · Analysis updated 17:49 UTC
Borac Cacak vs Grafičar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Borac Cacak and 0.69 for Grafičar, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Borac Cacak the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Borac Cacak win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Borac Cacak home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grafičar away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Borac Cacak to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 27% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Borac Cacak and 0.69 for Grafičar, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.0%
- 2–012.4%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–18.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 14.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.73 (model 61.7% vs market 53.0%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.73 | 53.0% | 61.7% | 1.62 | +8.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 41.6% | 44.3% | 2.26 | +2.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 26.6% | 26.7% | 3.75 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 17.5% | 17.6% | 5.68 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 55.9% | 55.7% | 1.80 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.12 | 83.5% | 82.4% | 1.21 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.9% | 73.3% | 1.36 | -1.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.0% | 38.3% | 2.61 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Borac Cacak
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs TSC Backa Topola · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Teleoptik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Metalac GM · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs OFK Bor 1919 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Grafičar · 2-1 (W)
Grafičar
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo Ub · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Javor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs TSC Backa Topola · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Teleoptik · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Metalac GM · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prva Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSC Backa Topola | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | Javor | 15 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 19 | 30 |
| 3 | Borac Cacak | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | OFK Vršac | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Semendrija 1924 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 25 |
| 6 | Dubočica | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 7 | Napredak | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 22 |
| 8 | Loznica | 15 | 4 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 20 |
| 9 | FK Vozdovac | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 19 |
| 11 | Naftagas | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 18 |
| 12 | Metalac GM | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 |
| 13 | Jedinstvo Ub | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Teleoptik | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 13 |
| 15 | Grafičar | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | OFK Bor 1919 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -22 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Borac Cacak win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.